Yasser Arafat (1929-2004)

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1385027,00.html Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has died after slipping into a coma on Wednesday at a French military hospital.


Yasser Arafat, the 75 year-old Palestinian leader, was determined to be clinically dead in a French military hospital. Arafat was being treated there for an unknown illness.


The frail head of the Palestinian Authority arrived in Paris last week after losing consciousness briefly at his West Bank headquarters. Arafat was at first said to have been suffering from a severe case of influenza, but was later diagnosed as having blood abnormalities and trouble with digestion.


Palestinian officials then ran tests for leukemia but the cancer was ruled out, and doctors remained uncertain what was causing his illness. Arafat's condition worsened three days ago and he slipped into a coma on Wednesday.


Born in Cairo in 1929, Yasser Arafat preferred to claim Jerusalem as his birthplace. He became politically active as a 19-year-old engineering student in Egypt in 1948, when the Arab countries that declared war on the fledgling state of Israel were defeated and thousands of Palestinians forced to flee their homes as a result.

I wonder how his death is gnna effect the conflict over there. Now if only Castro would follow suite..

Slightly different situation mate, the death of Yasser Arafat could, I believe, be the start of one of a number of possible courses of action.

1. Things will carry on as is, and the political leadership change will make little difference to the situation. Arafat was a legend amongst his people, they've declared a 40 day mourning period after all, making him ever so slightly different from Castro.

2. A single leader will emerge, one who is pro peace and willing to make some compromises with the Jewish government, and the situation in Israel/Palestine will be put to bed

3.A single leader will emerge, who is against the peace deals that have been agreed so far, and a return to the dark days of mass suicide bombings, followed by retribution by the Israeli military will be back in full force, with the possibility then of completely destabilising the region.

4. A number of lower profile, regional leaders will emerge, with no one high profile figurehead. This could work in any of the 3 ways mentioned above and end up creating a similar situation as was/is the case in Northern Ireland eventually.

I genuinely hope that option 2 is the course that takes place, but I am not in tune enough with the players on the ground to know who or whether there is someone there for the Palestinian people to rally behind. Wheres FYM when you need his input???

Oh how sad.
Another guy dead.

Slightly different situation mate, the death of Yasser Arafat could, I believe, be the start of one of a number of possible courses of action.

1. Things will carry on as is, and the political leadership change will make little difference to the situation. Arafat was a legend amongst his people, they've declared a 40 day mourning period after all, making him ever so slightly different from Castro.

2. A single leader will emerge, one who is pro peace and willing to make some compromises with the Jewish government, and the situation in Israel/Palestine will be put to bed

3.A single leader will emerge, who is against the peace deals that have been agreed so far, and a return to the dark days of mass suicide bombings, followed by retribution by the Israeli military will be back in full force, with the possibility then of completely destabilising the region.

4. A number of lower profile, regional leaders will emerge, with no one high profile figurehead. This could work in any of the 3 ways mentioned above and end up creating a similar situation as was/is the case in Northern Ireland eventually.

I genuinely hope that option 2 is the course that takes place, but I am not in tune enough with the players on the ground to know who or whether there is someone there for the Palestinian people to rally behind. Wheres FYM when you need his input???

I truly hope that it is option 2 also Swampy, though I won't be holding my breath. Not that I'm a huge believer in him, though I believe it was Nostradamus who prophesied that after his death a 10 year holy war would ensue. If it indeed does become either option 3 or 4, I think his prophecy just might come to pass.

hummm let's see what this will lead to. probaly more killing between the 2 groups

http://www.lachnu.nl/grog/content//plaatjes/twinladen.GIF

Well, I'm here, but I'm not sure how many facts I have to give you...
Like Swampy said, there is a chance that an ever more extremist leader will take charge, or that the Palestinians will go crazy with violence because of their pain. The latter scares me more than the former, since the main problem with Arafat was not his extremism (there are many Hamas leaders just as extreme), but his wide support among the Palestinian - a support of insane proportions. If a Palestinian fanatic rises to power (which is extremely unlikely judging by the way things are looking now), then Israel would not require any second thoughts before eliminating him. The reason this was not done with Arafat was because of his said mass support and the worry that this could destablise things very very seriously.

Which brings me to the other big potential danger here. I've already read of a couple of terrorist groups blaming Israel for Arafat's death (despite the fact that the hospital officials ruled this out). If this claim becomes popular, which I'm rather certain (and admittedly hopeful) it will not, then we might face a problem. But this, like the problem of the potential hardline leader, is an unlikely problem, and, even if it eventuates -temporary.

The positive effect Arafat's death and vanishing influence could very possilby have is the rise of a wiser and more realistic Palestinian leadership. As I understand it, the man who's essentially replacing Arafat's leadership post is Mahmoud Abbas, who I understand the Israeli government trusts. I don't know if you guys remember this but Mahmoud Abbas was already the Palestinian Prime Minister before, which was cause for optimism here, but then Arafat torpedoed the whole thing and refused to give Abbas any serious power. Sharon's already said in a speech that he is looking forwards to negotiating with the new Palestinian leadership, and I think we're out of the deadlock.

I'm really not up to date on Palestinian affairs, but as I said, Abbas is trusted by the leadership and I understand he is against terrorism - though I don't know if for moral or realistic reasons.

The way I see it, the only two realistic scenarios are Swampy's option 2 and 4. Of course I hope it's #2, but even if it's 4# what it will mean is that it's still a long way from peace, but the split-up will cost in efficency and make the terrorism easier to fight. It's up to the Palestinians now to see if they're smart enough to grab this chance before it's too late for any resolution and they send the region into a bloody conflict they cannot win.

I have more to say about this but it's nearly 2 am and I'm not even sure how much sense I've been making so far anyway. Bottom line, the world is a safer place today, not to mention free of an evil man.

hummm let's see what this will lead to. probaly more killing between the 2 groups

http://www.lachnu.nl/grog/content//plaatjes/twinladen.GIF
LMAO! Where do u get that from?

Btw, is arafat's death a good thing?